UK’s Conservatives set for biggest win since 1987: YouGov model


LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s Conservative Party is on target to win its biggest majority in parliament since 1987 at a Dec. 12 election, based on a brand new ballot, which might give Prime Minister Boris Johnson a mandate to take the nation out of the European Union.

The model developed by pollsters YouGov that precisely predicted the 2017 election consequence, confirmed the Conservatives are set to win 359 seats out of 650, which might be their greatest consequence since Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1987.

Johnson has pledged to ship Brexit by Jan. 31 if he wins after almost 4 years of political disaster that has shocked allies of a rustic as soon as thought-about one of many pillars of Western financial and political stability.

Since Britain voted to depart the EU in a June 2016 referendum, Johnson and his predecessor Theresa May have each tried and didn’t get offers to depart the 28-member bloc via parliament as a result of they lacked a majority.

“Our first MRP model projection for the 2019 election suggests that this time round the Conservatives are set for a majority,” mentioned Anthony Wells, director of political and social analysis at YouGov, referring to its Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model.

“The swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands,” mentioned Wells.

The British pound, which rose when rumors of the ballot outcomes circulated, shot up when it was revealed, rising half a cent in minutes to hit a day’s excessive of $1.2948.

The primary opposition Labour Party is on observe to safe 211 seats, down from 262, based on the YouGov model. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was on 43, the Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Brexit Party was not anticipated to win any seats.

HEADING FOR BREXIT

The YouGov model crunched knowledge from greater than 100,000 interviews over seven days together with demographics, particular constituency circumstances and nationwide statistics to give you a projection.

It exhibits the election is now Johnson’s to lose.

According to the model, the Conservatives would acquire 47 seats: 44 from Labour, two from the Lib Dems and the seat beforehand held by the Speaker of parliament. Labour aren’t on target to win any new seats.

“Most seats changing hands are ones that Labour won in 2017 that are now set to be taken by the Conservatives,” YouGov mentioned. “What happens in these constituencies is the most important dynamic in deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority, and how large it ends up being.”

The Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives greater than Labour, whereas independents are discovering it troublesome to select up seats, based on the model. It confirmed neither Johnson nor Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab are in peril of shedding their seats.

Dominic Cummings, who’s Johnson’s senior adviser, cautioned earlier than the YouGov outcomes had been launched hung parliament was nonetheless an actual risk.

“You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win,” he mentioned. “Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are much tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.”

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives at Healey’s Cornish Cyder Farm, in Callestick, Britain, November 27, 2019. Dan Kitwood/Pool by way of REUTERS – RC2QJD9VBZKQ

The margins of error within the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov mentioned, including that there was nonetheless loads of time for individuals to alter their minds earlier than Dec. 12 – the primary Christmas election in almost a century.

In late May 2017, simply over per week earlier than the June eight election, YouGov’s model projected Theresa May would lose her majority, although she had been forward in most polls.

The model, developed by Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics and Doug Rivers of Stanford University, was correct: May did lose her majority, a failure that sophisticated Brexit and finally destroyed her premiership.

Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by David Clarke

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



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