There’s numerous EV crossover competitors coming down the pike however don’t count on established gas-engine automakers to abruptly wrest the EV market from Tesla.
Tesla Model Y will dominate the EV crossover class as a result of it’s probably the most acknowledged EV model – definitely within the U.S.
With over 500,000 VIN registrations for the Model three, it’s not a large leap of religion to see the Model Y – with a beginning worth of $39,000 for the 230-mile vary model – garnering market share and thoughts share shortly.
Crossover competitors has arrived
Yes, the EV crossover competitors has already arrived within the U.S., together with the Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Kona EV, Jaguar I-PACE, and the Kia Niro EV – to not point out the 2020 Chevy Bolt (with an upwardly revised vary of 259 miles), and the Nissan Leaf S Plus.
But, keep in mind, all of the above EVs are from conventional automakers. They’re ICE car makers first, EV makers second. And proper now EVs are a distant second in gross sales. Don’t consider me? Go go to the U.S. supplier a number of any of these automotive producers. It’s wall-to-wall gas-engine autos (with a number of exceptions in markets like Los Angeles).
Still don’t consider me? Check out this gross sales chart from InsideEVs for the month of September. The much-vaunted Audi e-Tron bought a whopping 434 copies, the Hyundai Kona EV 190, The Jaguar I-Pace, 160, Kia Niro EV 90 and so forth.
Even for those who enable for lack of availability as a result of the above are EVs simply coming in the marketplace, long-established nameplates just like the Nissan Leaf (in its present iteration because the 226-mile-range Leaf S Plus) and the BMW i3 should not going gangbusters, with gross sales of simply over 1,000 for the Leaf and half that for the i3 in September.
The solely EV maker actually within the operating in any respect in September was the Chevy Bolt* with 2,125 copies bought, based on InsideEVs.
And the Model three? Over 19,000 bought in September, about eight occasions the closest competitors. It’s not ludicrous to count on that the Model Y will submit month-to-month numbers definitely increased than, for instance, a Bolt EV when manufacturing has ramped up. And in all probability a lot increased.
Model S and X will bow to the Model Y, launch to occur in summer time
Meanwhile Tesla is ramping up manufacturing of the Model Y sooner than anticipated.
Regarding Model Y, we’re additionally forward of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont, and we have moved the launch timeline from full 2020 to summer time 2020. There could also be some room for enchancment there, however we’re assured about summer time 2020.
–Elon Musk, October 24, 2019, third quarter earnings convention name (by way of Seeking Alpha).
And Tesla’s priorities are fairly clear as the corporate will get prepared for Model Y manufacturing. In responding to a query from an analyst on the October 24 name Musk mentioned:
The Model S and X are actually area of interest — they’re actually area of interest merchandise. I imply, they’re very costly, made in low quantity. To be completely frank, we’re persevering with to make them extra for sentimental causes than anything. They’re actually of minor significance to the long run.
Musk additionally talked about that Tesla will “construct out extra services for Model Y manufacturing at Shanghai.”
Production glitches are the X issue
Of course, a surge in Model Y deliveries in, let’s say, early 2021 depends on Model Y manufacturing being as prepared as Musk claims. And the CEO tends for extreme bullishness on the subject of expectations.
Barring an unexpected occasion, nevertheless, Tesla is extra prepared now for large-scale mass manufacturing than it was again in July of 2017 when it confronted a yr of manufacturing hell and was within the throes of turning into a high-volume automotive producer.
The Long Range and Performance variants of the Model Y —which you’ll order now from Tesla’s web site – begin at $48,000 and $61,000, respectively.
*In the spirit of full disclosure, I drive a 2018 Chevy Bolt.